The retail landscape in Kazakhstan is undergoing a fundamental transformation in 2026. Traditional corner shops (known locally as "dukens") and open-air markets are facing intense pressure from the rapid expansion of modern retail chains and e-commerce. While scholars emphasize the social importance of traditional trade, economic data suggests a decisive shift toward modern formats.

Market Dynamics: By the Numbers

• Declining Traditional Share: According to InfoLine, the revenue share of markets and traditional shops in Kazakhstan dropped from 61% in 2023 to 55% in 2025. Nielsen reports an even sharper trend: the ratio of modern to traditional retail shifted from 44/56 in 2019 to 55/45 by the end of 2024.
• Scale vs. Quantity: Despite there being only 1,765 chain stores (among the top 50 retailers) compared to 70,000 traditional outlets, these chains already capture one-third of total consumer spending.
• E-commerce Surge: The share of online trade in Kazakhstan has jumped from 9% to 15% in just two years.
• Infrastructure Shift: Qazstat confirms that stores smaller than 100 sq. m. accounted for only 68% of enterprises in 2024, down from 81% in 2017. Meanwhile, the number of open markets has decreased from over 900 to 626 over the last two decades.

Economic and Social Challenges

• Efficiency Gap: Research indicates a massive productivity gap: a single worker in a modern supermarket generates approximately 7 times more revenue than a worker in a traditional shop.
• The "Duken" Crisis: Local owners report a significant drop in earnings. For instance, a typical "duken" in Almaty saw its average daily revenue fall by 50,000 tenge (down to 300,000 tenge) over the past year.
• Regional Differences: While Almaty and Astana are highly globalized, traditional markets remain dominant in cities like Shymkent due to cultural preferences for social interaction and bargaining.
• The "Third Place": Beyond economics, these shops serve as vital social hubs or "third places" for local communities, offering informal micro-lending (the "notebook" system) and acting as essential anchors for rural survival.

Government and Market Response To improve transparency, the Almaty Akimat is modernizing markets—31 of 51 have already been upgraded to modern formats. Additionally, the government reduced the retail tax from 4% to 3%, though many entrepreneurs argue this is insufficient to offset rising inflation and competition.

Retailchina.pro Commentary: The transformation of retail in Kazakhstan has reached a turning point. Modern retail now controls 55% of the market, yet 70,000 "dukens" remain a crucial social institution. For international partners and suppliers, this necessitates a two-tiered strategy. Major capital is consolidating within chains, requiring direct contracts and strict compliance with packaging and logistics standards. However, the resilience of traditional formats in regions like Shymkent highlights a continued demand for personalized service. As seen in China, the survival of small formats will likely depend on digital integration—turning these shops into multi-functional service hubs (pick-up points and social centers) within broader ecosystems.